During the last two-plus years I didn’t just normalize the 1972 season, I also created normalized cards for 1968 and 1981, seasons I had posted earlier. The seasons are instructive as to the model and how it changes teams from different offensive contexts.
Below I’ve crafted a few charts that show how different seasons are modeled. The very strong pitching seasons of 1968 and the 1972AL land more results on pitchers cards, and this change from 50/50 results in a higher offensive multiplier for offensive cards. In contrast 1981 has less of this effect, and a modern season, with its “three outcomes” creates a higher offensive context with its emphasis on power and walks. The multiplier adds batting average, on base percentage, and slugging to batters cards in pitching rich seasons.
Figure 1: Summary Charts
The higher offensive context of 2021 will result in fewer hits and homeruns on batters cards, since pitchers now control extra base hits comparatively worse. A typical 1981 AL Batter will now have 19.88 hits, up from 19.04 and 2.9 BB, down from 3.1. While the starting point for 1981 AL batters and 1968 AL batters for homeruns is very similar, after adjustment the 1968 AL will have more power. The 2021 AL, with its emphasis on power throughout the lineup and walks, will wind up with fewer hits on batters cards but more of them will be doubles and homeruns. 2021 AL batters will also walk more and get hit by pitched ball more. This is how you have a five home run games with an ending score of 6-2. The important point is 1968 teams will still not hit better than those from 1972, 1981, or 2021. But the difference will now be less facing those lineups, and also partly made up by their pitchers.
Figure 2: Offense Comparisons
If a standard carding pitcher retains control 2-6,11,12, a 1968 pitcher retains control 2-6,10,12 and a 2021 pitcher retains control 2-6,11 (More or less). The differences are subtle but over a season having your pitchers consistently prevent extra base hits adds up. Figure 3 below shows how pitchers are affected by their context. In general some 2-5 pitchers will move up to 2-6, some pitchers will move up to 2-7, and there will be more 2-8 and 2-9 pitchers.
Figure 3: Pitching Comparison
IThe addition of more hits to 1968 and 1972 batters cards mean these hits also come off of the pitchers cards. A typical 1968 pitcher will have around a hit to a hit and a half taken off of their card, while teams from high run contexts would see a similar number of hits added. The net effect, again, is to bring these teams closer together when they play each other.
