“Basketball in the Bubble” – Cards for the 2019-2020 Season for Statis-Pro NBA Basketball
Link: Statis-Pro Basketball Cards for the 2019-2020 NBA Eastern Conference
Link: Stats-Pro Basketball Cards for the 2019-2020 NBA Western Conference
Other Statis-Pro Basketball Links
I love Statis-Pro Basketball, in part because it successfully modeled an era of late Seventies hoops that I admired; offense in the paint, and the apex of the Big Men. Growing up in Detroit, the Seventies teams I followed may not have won much, but we had Bob Lanier, and big time assist guys like Kevin Porter. “Big Bob” could play defense, block shots, rebound and score, and he was fun to watch during the time when centers like Bill Walton, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Robert Parish were rare and desirable players. You could obtain Greatest Teams for SPBB, including the 1969-1970 playoffs, and great centers like Wilt Chamberlain and Willis Reed would plug right in.
Put simply the game was modeled to reward teams that could pound the ball inside, score off the dribble, steal and rebound. The ideal team would have a point guard who could play defense and pile up great assist numbers, like Walt Frazier, a Center who could rebound, defend, defend the rim, and score like Kareem or pass, like Walton, and at least one scorer with a lot of stamina and no secondary results, like George Gervin, or Julius Erving. You could surround such a team with more scorers, a defender who had a high steal rating, and another ball handler, but nothing helped these teams like another rebounder. Hence a Walton also had a Maurice Lucas, Kareem would have a Kurt Rambis, and Reed had Dave DeBusschere. In a game where two point Field Goals were the only outcome, high pct FG shooters in the front court were the premiere weapon, and when they failed you wanted to clear the boards. It’s a simplistic model, but it did generally reward the best teams in the NBA, who followed mostly the same regimen.
This mostly flowed forward to the Eighties, where the Celtics were built around Parish, Bird, and McHale, and the Lakers had Kareem and the great assist man in Magic Johnson. Teams had three-point shooting but it was more of a secondary option. Basketball was a war of attrition played in the paint, where rim attackers like Michael Jordan could overcome the increasingly suffocating defenses played by teams like Detroit. Jordan was a career .510 shooter in the paint, but his 0.327 shooting from beyond the arc meant his career eFG% was only 0.509 – great for then, but far behind Steph Curry now (0.583 eFG%). Note that Jordan averaged 37ppg in 1986-87 in a league where the teams averaged 109ppg. He was able to maintain a very high level of productivity in a league where you had to try almost 27 2pt FGs a game to accomplish what he did.
Because the 3 pointer was almost an afterthought in 1987 (teams hit about 30 pct of about 4.7 tries per game) the SPBB game didn’t need to change much to accommodate shooting beyond the arc. They tacked on a 3 point range and a rule with a shot limit and for years this was satisfactory. You could play the 3 pointer as a gadget play and the typical game flow would not be affected. But at some point after 2000, the 3 pointer doubled in team per game tries, from 14 attempts per game to its current level of 29 attempts per game, and teams featured specialists just for this purpose. Mid range jumpers that weren’t threes started to disappear from the game, because these averaged less than 50% success, and points per try at this range were well under 0.9ppa, while triples made at better than 33% could create greater than 1.0 points per try. Teams realized that they could improve their offense by simply changing their shot selection to avoid these longer mid-range two point attempts. The change was gradual at first, but by the early 2000s, teams were drastically reducing their mid-range attempts in favor of the more efficient 3-pointer. In 2014-15, NBA teams, for the first time, were more likely to shoot a 3 pointer than a mid-range jump shot. Today, 1 in 3 Field goal attempts is a 3 point field goal attempt. Teams found that they could take more threes and score more points.
Why does this matter?
It matters because the way players were traditionally carded, and the rules were written, the cards for the current best shooting teams would not be the best shooting teams anymore. You traditionally carded a player based on their overall FG percentage and scoring. For Steph Curry in 2017-2018, he would normally be rated as a primary range 11-48 with no secondary field goal range, and an 11-43 range on threes. But Steph made almost 60% of his two pointers; on offensive rebounds he would underperform. In the old model, assists could ‘counter’ the loss of 2pt field goal efficiency because you would never try enough threes for it to really matter. But in 2017-2018 Steph tried almost ten three pointers a game and had an eFG% of 0.618. You would never get that eFG% in a simulation that featured that 11-48 primary shooting range with that 11-43 three point range as well. You would never try many threes at all with his card; instead you would try to use his assist rating to attack the hoop as much as you could with his stamina. But that’s not Steph – I mean, he can do this, but his game is long range shooting. The whole NBA now is based on high efficiency long range shooting.
If you look at 2019-2020 Houston as a team, they finished second in the NBA in scoring while shooting only 0.451, ninth from the bottom. But they shot as many threes as they did two pointers, at 45 per game each, and their 2pt FG% was second only to Milwaukee at 0.557. 2019-2020 Houston shot an eFG% of 0.531, fifth in the NBA, they are tremendous shooting team. As a small-ball team, if you card them to the old system and play by that rule set their primary FG ranges are low while other teams will have role players who can shoot 11-58 at the rim; these teams will kill them on put backs and they will be lucky to win games, but in reality they won their division. So that means the cardings and rules have to change to accommodate the current reality – efficient three point shooting and two-way wing talent wins games in the modern NBA, and player versatility matters. The NBA is a different game than it was on 1978, and Statis-Pro Basketball needs a different way to card and a different set of rules.
The old carding and rule set no longer works. I’ve tested a new carding and a new rule set, and here is the gist:
Three and D Rule Set
Carding changes:
Players are now carded to position, point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, and center. No more just guard, forward, center. No more off guards playing defense on the ball at the point unless they are carded to do this. I’ve checked the depth charts and lineups for these.
Some players have the center position as their last position, and that position is the third position or greater. An example is 2019-2020 Robert Covington, a PF-SF-C. They can play center in Small Ball lineups, more on this later. Small Ball can compel an opponent to make changes to counter it.
The biggest carding change – the Primary is now carded for the player’s 2pt FGA attempt pct. This would normally create a real problem for some low attempt forward or guard types who normally score off rebounds, have high Primary ranges such as 11-58, and would become deadly on the advance with that second pass. These guys (thinking Artis Gilmore or Dave Twardzik types, twisting corkscrew layup shooters) would be unsung highly valuable players in the old game, but I have another rule to deal with them, and to place them properly with their real values offensively. Simply put, you won’t always be able to advance the ball in to get that high percentage Primary two point shot.
Timing:
The pace of the game will be much faster, so in order to stay in line with team’s usage, you remove five cards from the deck, i.e. 40 cards instead of 45. This means 160 sides per quarter, or 4.5 seconds per card. The easiest way to accommodate this is to shuffle the 45 cards (normally 180 sides per 12 min quarter) and remove 5 each quarter completely. The remaining 40 cards are now 160 sides in a quarter. I tested this somewhat empirically, and I encourage anyone else testing this ruleset to chime in.
Rules Changes:
On the play coming up the court (Action:) if player is rated for the three, you can either shoot the triple, adjusted by the defender, or shoot a two pointer off the secondary range (if the player has one, usually not a great choice), adjusted by the defender, or the primary range (if the player does not have a secondary range) adjusted by the defender, or pass the ball (advance). Under these new rules a two point shot from the primary range is no longer guaranteed past this point. On the first pass, you can choose the triple (if target is rated) or the double.
The one exception is fouled in the act of shooting from Action. Fouled in the act of shooting here is considered a 2 point FG attempt, resolved from the primary attempt column, and a miss results in two attempts. A make results in the “and one”. Three-point attempt fouling will be handled later, below.
On each Advance, assuming that first player does not shoot the ball, you have several outcomes:
a) Pass To (position)… i.e. Pass To F1, for the player who receives the pass, this attempt cannot be shot as a two point shot. The player must either pass it again or shoot it as a triple, adjusted by the player’s defender. This now tremendously diminishes the value of players who cannot shoot threes or pass. Pass To (Positions) results with their variants (like steal chances) come up more than half the time off the Advance column;
b) Pass To Choice…the player who is chosen to receive this has the choice of either a 2 point attempt off of his primary range, adjusted by his defender, or a 3 point attempt, adjusted by his defender. Here a “And Fouled in the Act of Shooting” on the Shot Number… will result in a potential two, three, or four point play depending on that prior shot choice. If this shot result comes from a three point choice, it’s three free throws or a three point made basket and one free throw. Pass to Choice results come up in the Advance column only about one seventh of the time, so if you get one and the game situation allows for it, this is your chance to pound it inside to someone who otherwise cannot shoot, or find someone with a bad defender on him for a good three point chance.
c) Pass to Choice (Use Passer Assist Rating)… the player who is chosen to receive this has the choice of either a 2 point attempt off of the passer’ assist rating, or a 3 point attempt, NOT adjusted by his defender. Here an “And Fouled in the Act of Shooting” on the Shot Number… will result in a potential two, three, or four point play depending on that prior shot choice. If this shot result comes from a three point choice, it is three free throws or a three point made field goal and one free throw. Pass to Choice (Use Passer Assist Rating) results only come up in the Advance column about one chance in five, so a great passer should try to pass it inside, and a poor passer should aim for the best three point shooting chance. Too many poor passers, however, and you wind up unable to attack the rim. Having a good passer in the front court becomes very useful in the modern NBA.
d) You may advance the ball twice, just as before, in the original ruleset.
e) On Offensive Rebounds, the rebounding player may attempt an adjusted 2 point shot attempt using his Primary column. They may also choose to advance the ball in a normal manner.
f) If someone shoots and makes a three on an initial pass to the forecourt after a defensive rebound, it counts as an assist for whoever had the ball before the shot.
g) If on the last allowable Advance passes the ball to a player who cannot shoot threes and the game situation requires a three point attempt, i.e. a Pass To…(position) then that player must shoot using his secondary column, if he has one. If he does have a three point column, no matter how bad it is, he must shoot it; this means you, Russ. This is the one situation where 2019-2020 Russell Westbrook will kill you if he gets the ball last. I love Russ, but just like in real life his shot selection can be frustrating!
h) You are allowed the choice to fast break on any steal. This has implications under Small Ball Rules.
“Small Ball” Rules
Some players have the center position as their last position, and that position is the third position or greater. An example is 2019-2020 Robert Covington, a PF-SF-C. If you play a player like this in the center position, you can declare a small ball lineup. Small ball lineups pay a price for rebounding but gain an advantage in fast breaking unless they are countered. A player rated as a PF-C alone is not a small ball center (although he is still useful against such a lineup, see below). The player must have three positions and the last position be designated a C.
If a team goes to small ball and their opponent keeps a player in the center position (the 5) who is rated as a Center ONLY (C) or a Center FIRST (C-PF) then that opposing team will pay the small ball penalty. The penalty is, after all adjustments are made, the small ball team moves up one fast break rating from the normal placement (i.e., from B to A) on offense and the opponent moves down one rating (i.e., from C to D) on offense. The Small Ball team is thus quicker on both fast break offense and defense.
The small ball lineup may be successfully countered by placing a player at the Center position (the 5) who is rated at more than one position and the C rating is last, i.e. a PF-C. If such a player is subbed in no fast break penalties are assigned. The opposing team might choose also to place small ball pressure by also playing a player where the center position is their last position, and that position is the third position or greater. This means both teams have true small ball lineups playing and if either should attempt to bring in a true C or C-PF type player they will pay the fast break penalty. So a team has a choice to either counter a small ball lineup, or to also assume one, and some teams are carded to be better at this than others.
Small Ball Example: 2019-2020 Houston and 2019-2020 Los Angeles
Los Angeles has a nifty front court with dangerous (5) substitute candidates in Dwight Howard (rated as a C-PF) and JaVale McGee (rated as a C only), who are great rebounders, put-back artists off the offensive boards and rim protectors. In theory the ‘19-‘20 Rockets have Clint Capela carded; but in practice they traded Capela to Atlanta in mid-season and he got hurt. He’s not really a Rocket; the Rockets at the end of the year don’t have a true (5) on their roster. LA is rated a “B” on their FB offensively, the Rockets are a “C” defensively, which resolves to a “B” final rating for LA. Houston is rated an “A” offensively and LA an “A” defensively which resolves to a “C” final rating for Houston.
It is very much in Houston’s game plan to limit LA’s use of Howard or McGee, and they really don’t have a choice, so they would use one of their five “three position, center last” players at the (5), House, Carroll, Caboclo, Sefolosha, or Covington, who now holds a very key spot in their lineup. They can play a more standard lineup with Jeff Green at the (5) and P.J. Tucker at the (4) but this is an unlikely rotation against LA.
Placing one of those three position Centers at the (5) – we’ll say Covington now forces the Lakers coach to make a choice- leave Howard or McGee in at the (5) to clear the boards and dominate inside to a point, but now Houston’s Small Ball lineup moves UP to the “B” fast break chart while LA moves DOWN to the “C” fast break chart. Remember steals can be fast breaks in this new ruleset, so what you gain on the boards you can lose in transition. The Lakers could move Anthony “Street Clothes” Davis (who is rated at PF-C) to the (5) which is exactly what they did in most cases in these situations. This move counters the Small Ball lineup and negates the FB penalties, but does not put small ball pressure on Houston. For that, the Lakers could use Kyle Kuzma, a PF-SF-C at the (5) and now if Houston did move to a standard lineup it would be LA with the “A” fastbreak and Houston with the “D” fastbreak, something Houston would want to avoid at almost any cost.
An Example of the 3 and D ruleset using the Rockets and Lakers
The Rockets have just made a Defensive Rebound against the Lakers. We’ll give it to Tucker for argument’s sake. The Pass comes up court to Harden at G2 against LeBron James. This is an interesting moment because Harden can shoot 11-47 as a 2 pointer or 11-32 as a 3 pointer and he has all the stamina in the world as a shooter. If he does shoot and makes give the assist to Tucker. But Harden is also an excellent passer at 11-62 so he’ll kick it (advance one). The result is Pass To: F1 in this case the small forward, we’ll say that’s McLemore. In the old rules Ben could shoot it at 11-62 on his Primary, but in this ruleset if the result is not an “Assist Rating Pass” or “Pass to Choice” McLemore has to shoot a guarded 3 pointer. Whether it’s Kuzma (a 0 defender) or Green (a minus 3 defender) this is likely as good a chance as any; the first is a 39% chance at three points and the second is still 34%, which is better than a point per attempt. McLemore can shoot up to 12 3 pointers a game and is useless in almost every other way, so you shoot it, but we’ll assume he passes. A “Pass to…” G1 (Westbrook) would be bad, because Russ has to put up the 11-28 three pointer adjusted by his defender (we’ll say Caldwell-Pope, a minus 1); in the case of a “Pass to Choice” however the same pass to Westbrook could now use his Primary at 11-48 (minus 1) or 11-47. An “Assist rating” pass allows for an 11-41 two point shot (which is a terrible idea) or an unguarded 3 pointer, which will be a very good outcome for everybody except Westbrook. A fouled in the act of shooting here would be a three point attempt, 3 points plus one or three free throws. If that pass had gone to a player like Capela, he would have had to shoot off his secondary (11-44, adjusted) on a Pass To… , his Primary (11-58) on a Pass to Choice, and 11-41 on an assist rating shot. His inability to shoot threes is very limiting in this ruleset.
One look at these rules in action and you realize that wing players now have to be able to Shoot Threes and Play Defense, or Shoot Threes and Pass, or have no Secondary and drive the ball and be able to pass at least reasonably proficiently. You can’t just throw players like Sikma, Silas and Shelton out there at the same time any more in today’s game.
