“Pitching Chaos” 2024 MLB Season for Statis-Pro Baseball

“Pitching Chaos” 

The Normalized 2024 MLB Season for Statis-Pro Baseball, c. 1987 cards

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2024 Detroit Tigers SPBB cards

2024 Detroit Tigers: 86-76, 3rd Place in AL Central

The Tigers’ story is amazing: Detroit sunk to 23-24 on May 20 and remained at or below .500 for the next 2 months leading into the trade deadline. Tarik Skubal was running away with the AL Cy Young, Riley Greene was turning into an All-Star, and Jack Flaherty was looking like the runaway Chris Fetter Reclamation Project of The Year winner. But it wasn't enough to cover for the roster’s dead weight at first base, in center, and especially at shortstop.  Their best hitting reserve catcher, Carson Kelly, pitcher Andrew Chafin, and a strong veteran hitter in Mark Canha all said their good-byes to Detroit. None brought back a big return. As we all know, Flaherty was dealt right at the trade deadline buzzer to the Dodgers, who sent back borderline top-100 catching prospect Thayron Liranzo and 24-year old AAA shortstop Trey Sweeney, who was having a below-average year in Oklahoma City to that point.  

It looked bad.  On Saturday August 10, Detroit was 55-63.  They had sent down last year’s best power hitter, Spencer Torkelson, and it did not look like the rotation or lineup had enough left to avoid another 90 loss season. But a funny thing happened on the trip to the bottom- it never happened. The Tigers won 31 of their next 44 using the capable Sweeney in place of the fading Javier Baez, and behind “Pitching Chaos”, using Skubal, Reese Olsen and rookie Keider Montero as primary starters down the stretch and filling in the last starting slots with the combination of relief pitchers Tyler Holton, Will Vest, Jason Foley, Brant Hurter, Brenan Hanifee and Sean Gunther, with Beau Briske emerging as a stopper.  This group dropped Detroit’s ERA from 7th in the AL to 2nd.  The team ERA was an MLB-best 2.72 from Aug. 11 to the end of the season.

It didn’t hurt that Torkelson returned to at least hit decently, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling played exceptionally well, and Colt Keith, Zach McKinstry and Andy Ibanez combined for good middle infield play and key hits down the stretch.  But the key man was Skubal, who led AL pitchers in wins, ERA and strikeouts, becoming the first AL pitching Triple Crown winner in a 162-game season since then-Tiger Justin Verlander in 2011. Skubal was dominant down the stretch, posting a 1.85 ERA over his final eight starts and carrying a 28-inning scoreless streak from Sept. 18 until a five-run fifth inning that doomed Detroit in Game 5 of the ALDS against the Cleveland Guardians. 

2024 New York Yankees SPBB Cards

(Revised 11/21/2024)

2024 New York Yankees: 94-68, 1st Place in AL East

Let’s get this out of the way: Aaron Judge, 2024: BA: .322 (3rd) HR: 58 (1st) RBI: 144 (1st) OPS: 1.159 (1st) Walks: 133 (1st) Runs: 122 (3rd) FWAR: 11.2 (1st) BWAR: 10.8 (1st) Offensive War: 11.6 (5th all time behind Bonds and Ruth).

It is one of the greatest seasons in MLB history, and it managed to surpass 2022 Judge (.311, 62, 133, 1.111, 11.1 FWAR). It might be the best right handed hitting season in history. 

But Judge’s great run has a tendency to overshadow other subtleties of the Yankee season. For one thing Juan Soto arrived in New York and hit 41 HR, meaning the duo’s 99 combined HR finished third in Yankee history behind the M and M brothers in 1961 (115) and Ruth and Gehrig in 1927 (107).  While Giancarlo Stanton missed a lot of the season, he and Judge homered in the same game 14 times, tying the Yankee record set by Maris and Mantle in 1961. But the Yankees really played three seasons- a dominant start at 50-22 by June 14th, an absolutely terrible period during which they lost 20 of 30 games following injuries to Stanton, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and the pitching staff, then finally a resurgent period to win the East, with Gleyber Torres finding his home in the lead off spot, Luke Weaver as a closer, Jazz Chisholm, Jr. taking over at 3B, and Austin Wells as a starting catcher. The pitching was inconsistent wall to wall, although Gerrit Cole straightened himself out for the postseason and Luis Gil was equally capable of missing both the strike zone and opponent bats.  The Yankees finished 94-68 and won a bye, finishing off the Royals in four games in the ALDS and Cleveland in five games in the ALCS to win their 41st AL Pennant.

2024 Cleveland Guardians SPBB Cards

2024 Cleveland Guardians: 92-69, 1st Place in AL Central

Cleveland put five players in the All-Star Game, including starters LF Steven Kwan, and 3B Jose Ramirez, along wth utility plyer David Fry, 1B Josh Naylor, and closer Emmanuel Clase, who would easily win the AL Cy Young with 46 saves and a .61 ERA in any year where Tarik Skubal wasn't also pitching as he did. Cleveland finished 3rd in the AL in ERA, just decimals hehind Detroit.  They played their usual excellent defense, with perennial Gold Glovers 2B Andres Giminez and LF Steven Kwan, but 1B Josh Naylor, 3B Jose Ramirez and SS Brayan Rocchio were Gold Glove finalists. Cleveland's strength was a roster deep in fielding talent that could also hit, and a bullpen that included Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Eli Morgan, who combined for 330 IP and ERAs all under 2.00. A case could be made for Ramirez as the best top five MLB player nobody knows, as he scored 114 runs, had 39 doubles and 39 HR, drove in 118 runs and stole 41 bases. They were hurt by season long problems with injuries to their outfield, and starting pitching, but two moves helped save their lineup- trading for CF Lane Thomas and promoting RF Johnkensy 'Big Christmas' Noel. These moves gave the Guardians right handed power to balance their left handed hitters, and Cleveland banged 185 HRs and stole 148 bases, 2nd in the AL. Cleveland won 92 games and the AL Central, and outlasted Detroit in the ALDS in five hard fought games, before the home run barrage from Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto finished them in the ALCS.    

2024 Los Angeles Dodgers SPBB Cards    

(This one’s for you, Max. Enjoy!)

2024 Los Angeles Dodgers: 98-64, 1st Place in NL West

It’s a testimony to the Dodger’s resilience that they lost to injuries both Tyler Glasgow and Gavin Stone, who combined for a 20-11 record, half a season of Max Muncy, nearly that of Mookie Betts, Justin Hayward and Miguel Rojas, but they still finished with the best record in baseball.  The injuries devastated the outfield in particular, although LA got a great hitting season from rookie Andy Page and they picked up Kevin Kiermaier and Tommy Edman before the trade deadline to help out in centerfield, a set of moves that paid off when Edman won the MVP of the NLCS. The Dodger attack was relentless, led by Shohei Ohtani, who bashed 54 HRs, stole 59 bases, batted .310, scored 134 runs and drove in 130, the all around play of 1B Freddie Freeman and SS/RF Mookie Betts, and Teoscar Hernandez’s 33 HR and 99 RBI. LA overcame a 2-1 deficit in the NLDS against their bitter rivals, the San Diego Padres to win in 5 games and then bested the Mets in the NLCS in 6 immensely entertaining contests to win their chance to reprise the 1981 World Series match against their historical rivals from the Bronx. There, they claimed their 8th Championship in five games behind the peerless Freeman. 

2024 New York Mets SPBB Cards

New York Mets: 89-73, 3rd Place in NL East

It was surreal but not surprising that the Mets ousted the Phillies in Game 4 of the NLDS at Citi Field to earn a trip against the Dodgers in the NLCS. It was surreal because of where the Mets came from to get there, digging themselves out of an early-season hole when all seemed lost to most. But it is not surprising because the Mets were quite literally the best team in baseball since June.  In order to get one step away from the World Series -- after persevering all year through gauntlets in their schedule that were supposed to end this magical ride, a season-long injury to their ace, and constant doubt from the outside -- the Mets stared adversity down and overcame it repeatedly.

A doubleheader the day after the regular season was supposed to end, where the Mets had to win a game at their perennial house of horrors in Atlanta in order to clinch a playoff spot? No problem -- even though they entered the ninth inning of Game 1 trailing. The Mets had taken a 6-3 lead into the 8th against the Braves only to see Atlanta score 4 to take a 7-6 lead. But SS Francisco Lindor (33 HR, 107 R, 91 RBI) hit a big 2 run homer to give the New Yorkers the vital split. 

Having to defeat a tough Brewers team on no rest and with no home games in the Wild Card Series, down to their last three outs in Game 3 with one of the best closers in baseball on the mound? Not an issue. The Mets season story changed with one swing off the bat of 1B Pete Alonso (34 HR, 88 RBI), who nailed a 3 run homer with one out and two on to win the NLDS. 

Taking down a Phillies team that was one of the most dangerous in the league? Check that one off, too, as the Mets first went into Philadelphia and split the first two games at the most intimidating stadium in the league. After that, faced with the task of becoming the first Mets team to ever clinch a playoff series at Citi Field -- and the first Mets squad in 24 years to clinch a series at home -- the Mets did it.  They pushed the Dodgers to six games in the NLCS before finally heading home, not bad for a team that had faced a 9-22 streak in early May and was 27-36 on June 8th. 

2024 Philadelphia Phillies SPBB Cards

Philadelphia Phillies: 95-57, 1st Place in NL East

On paper, and on these cards, the Phillies look like a tough draw.  Philadelphia posted the second-best record in the majors and led the NL East every day from May 3 to season’s end en route to their first division title in thirteen years. 

The Phillies were 62-33 leading into the final weekend before the All-Star break. They were 33-34 the rest of the way. Including the playoffs, they went 34-37 over a span nearly the length of a half-season.  Somewhere along the way, the Phillies stopped being the team that lost only five of its first 30 series. The starting pitching began to show signs of mortality, the early leads weren't as plentiful, the situational hitting less consistent.

They spent the entire second half showing they weren't that team of destiny anymore, that their first 3½ months might have been flukily hot.  And they proved it in the NLDS, losing three of four to a Mets team that thoroughly outplayed them in all phases of the game. 

This result was somewhat unexpected, unless you were paying attention to how the two teams were playing at the time.  Philadelphia had the best or second-best starting rotation and the best or second-best bullpen that made it into the playoffs, Zack Wheeler challenged Chris Sale for the National League Cy Young Award, Aaron Nola had a great season and Cristopher Sánchez (with his super changeup) and Ranger Suárez(with his five-pitch mix and command) rounded out a tough group of starters, and they had two All-Star firemen in Hoffman and Strahm who could pitch in high-stress situations. Offensively, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Alec Brohm and Trea Turner anchored a lineup that could explode but also slump.  But it all went for naught against a surging Mets team that ended their season, 4-1, in game four of the NLDS in New York. 

2024 Milwaukee Brewers SPBB Cards

Milwaukee Brewers: 93-69, 1st Place in the NL Central

Since 2018, the Milwaukee Brewers have ranked third in the National League with 580 regular season wins, have booked six trips to the post-season and have claimed four division titles.  But with just one playoff series win to show for it, the Brewers have been unable to solve the puzzle of October baseball. They got their chance this year against the New York Mets, who continued to surprise the postseason in what was widely considered a transition season. 

Milwaukee cruised to the NL Central title and the third best record in the NL behind one of the best bullpens in baseball and the emergence of multiple star-level contributors in the lineup. The Brewers bullpen had been solid all year long and entered the post-season firing on all cylinders. The relief crew was headlined by Devin Williams, Joel Payamps and Aaron Ashby and ranked among the NL leaders in ERA (2.72), strikeout minus walk percentage (18.3) and HR/9 (0.81) since the All-Star break. On the offensive side, Jackson Chourio slashed .310/.363/.552 with 12 homers in the second half to rank 10th in baseball in fWAR over that span, producing a formidable middle-of-the-order trio alongside Willy Adames and William Contreras.  The Brewers, second in the NL in steals, had three other active players with at least 20 stolen bases this season: Blake Perkins (23), Jackson Chourio (22) and Willy Adames (21).

The short straw was the pitching.  After losing Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles and Brandon Woodruff to shoulder surgery in the 23-24 off-season, the Brewers rotation was full of question marks behind Freddy Peralta entering 2024. And while the likes of Colin Rea and Tobias Myers stepped up to help carry Milwaukee through the regular season, the Brewers still didn’t have a definitive number 2 starter behind Peralta.  The shortness of the rotation overexposed the relief corps, resulting in Pete Alonso's historic, clutch home run in the ninth inning in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series that sent the Brewers packing. 

2024 San Diego Padres SPBB Cards

San Diego Padres: 93-69, 2nd in the NL West 

The Padres could do very similar things with their starting nine as the Dodgers, and while they were not quite as stacked, nobody was an easy out. The only below-average hitter in their starting lineup was Xander Bogaerts, but even he had a track record of being a great hitter. CF Jackson Merrill (.292, 24 HR, 90 RBIs) would have won Rookie of the Year in any season where Paul Skenes wasn’t also pitching. Manny Machado (.275, 29 HR, 105 RBI) had a 122 wRC+ on the season, after an elbow injury slowed his start, and he had a 141 wRC+ and .869 OPS going all the way back to the middle of May. Fernando Tatis, Jr. missed two months with a stress reaction in his right leg, but had an .868 OPS after returning from the Injured List in the beginning of September. Jurickson Profar (.280, 94 R, 24 HR, 85 RBI) had a career year with a .839 OPS. DH Luis Arraez had a bit of a down year with a .739 OPS, but still had 200 hits and won his third consecutive batting title (.314). 

With Dylan Cease, Michael King and Joe Musgrove, the Padres had a pitching staff built to challenge the Dodgers, and challenge they did, holding a 2-1 lead in the NLDS before succumbing in Game 5 to LA. But the Padres won 93 Games and gave LA all they could handle in their third such matchup since 2020. 

2024 Atlanta Braves SPBB Cards

2024 Atlanta Braves; 89-73, 2nd Place in NL East

The Atlanta Braves' 2024 season was plagued by injuries and underperformance, leading to a disappointing finish. It is a shame, because the Braves were as good as anyone when healthy. 

The Braves lost key players early in the season, including RF Acuña Jr., who tore his ACL in May, and SP Spencer Strider, who underwent season-ending elbow surgery after just two starts.  Although Strider was injured the Braves pitching was still very strong. Not only was the Braves pitching good, they had the best ERA and most strikeouts in MLB.  2B Ozzie Albies and 3B Austin Riley were also out for about a third of the season each.  1B Matt Olson, who had a career-best season in 2023, underperformed in 2024, dropping from .283, 54 HR and 139 RBI to .247, 29 HR and 98 RBI. At one point the once potent lineup just stopped hitting, forcing a last day doubleheader with the Mets that gave Atlanta a second game reprieve and a tiebreaker win over Arizona. 

Chris Sale won the Triple Crown and the NL Cy Young, leading the National League in wins, strikeouts, and ERA. However, he was unable to pitch in the wild-card round due to back spasms, forcing Atlanta to try second tier pitching against the ever- dangerous Padres lineup in the NL Wild Card round.  This did not end well, with San Diego bouncing the Braves in two quick games. 

2024 Kansas City Royals SPBB Cards

2024 Kansas City Royals: 86-76, 2nd Place in the AL Central

The 2023 Royals only eked out 56 wins and were largely unwatchable. In 2024, the team won an even 30 games more and at points looked like a legitimate threat to take the division.  They became the first team in Major League Baseball history to go from 100 losses to winning a playoff series.  This team was fun to watch, and it had stars. Gold Glove SS Bobby Witt Jr. (.332, 211 H, 32 HR 125 R, 109 RBI was the MVP runner-up. Both Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14, 223 K) (2nd) and Seth Lugo (16-9, 3.00, 181K) (4th) ended up in the top five of the AL Cy Young voting. Salvador Perez (.271, 27 HR, 104 RBI) was great, again. The Royals got to play in the second round of the October playoffs rather than to perform a sort of a death march as they had the previous September.

But it can be true that such a season can be both fantastic and frustrating—fantastic because of the outcome versus the prior year’s results, but frustrating because of this year’s emerging expectations confounded by what the Royals did in the final stretch, when they lost 18 of their last 29 regular season games and also got bumped from the playoffs at home.  With four excellent starters the Royals were set up as well as any team in on the AL side for a deep run, but while they were competitive in every game in the postseason, their play in the final analysis boiled down to “feisty, but overmatched.”

And In Other News….

 

“Draft Leaguer Finds Hal Richman Has Been Wrong for 57 Years.”

The Era of Rotating Home NFL Playoff Games - 1970-1974 NFL Post Season Matchups (Revised)

 

The Era of Rotating Home NFL Playoff Games (Revised)

1970-1974 NFL Post Season Matchups

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One of my favorite questions that people ask is, “Why did the 1972 Dolphins have to play the AFC Championship Game on the road?”  The inevitable pat answer is that this happened during the era during which the NFL rotated home playoff position every year, which is technically true but immaterial, as the Dolphins actually were not the road team in the 1972 AFC postseason; the AFC West champ Raiders were. The Dolphins were on the road for the AFC Championship Game because of who they played, and beat in the first round, and that matchup was actually set by a few factors that are not so obvious.

These factors deserve a deep rewind.  As Strat-O-Matic football gamers it is not merely enough to understand the rotation system; you have to know how to accurately apply it in each conference and for each situation where the Wild Card might change from the real-life team. I get e-mails on this every so often, and since I’ve already posted on Division and Wild Card tie-breakers I figured I might as well post on how to determine matchups during this odd period in NFL History, 1970-1974.

Excel sheet of all matchups, 1970-1974

First a few details on the NFL in the near post Merger era.  Before the Merger, the NFL had sixteen teams and they were organized into two conferences and four divisions, each of which would send one playoff representative. There was no Wild Card. In the first round in the East, the Capitol Division winner (in the Late Sixties, usually Dallas) and the Century Division winner (Cleveland) would play to decide the Eastern Conference’s representative in the NFL Championship; The West had a Coastal Division (Baltimore or LA) and a Central Division (Minnesota) and those teams played for the Western Conference berth.

The merger changed everything – the League now had 26 teams and these were divided into 2 conferences, each of three divisions. The old system generated 3 playoff games in the 1969 AFL and 3 playoff games in the NFL and the Super Bowl; the new system could not have less playoff games, as these generated tremendous revenue for the home teams. So, the League added Wild cards in both the NFL and AFL, which meant that there would be two Divisional round games and a Championship Game in each Conference, the same as in 1969.  But there was one more wrinkle- the newer, bigger league wanted to distribute these playoff games to every region of the United States to drum up more interest.  This requirement seems quaint now, but you have to remember - it worked. The NFL would add two more teams within half a dozen years and expand from fourteen to sixteen games comprising a season two years after that.  Rotating playoff games built the nationwide interest in the NFL we know today.   

The Sporting News 1970 Football Edition

The NFL named the Champions of the Eastern Divisions of both Conferences the home teams for the 1970 first round, and the NFC Central Champion and AFC West teams were also set to be hosts.  

The actual rules for playoff seedings and matchups seem simple on the surface.  Two division champions would be designated as home teams and one division champion would be designated as the road team.  Here’s where it gets fun- the Wild Card could not play the division champion from its same division in the first round of the playoffs.  If this happened, the matchup would rotate again.

The Sporting News 1970 Football Edition, Redux

Special Thanks to Tommy Nobis, Ace Researcher!

From The Sporting News, for the 1970 NFC Team A (East Champ) and Team B (Central Champ) would be the home teams, and Team C (West Champ) and Team D (Wildcard, or second place team with best percentage in conference) would play on the road, with Team C at Team A, and Team D at Team B – unless Team D and B were in the same division, which they were.  The alternate rotation used in this case would place Team D (Detroit) at Team A (Dallas) and Team C (San Francisco) would be at Team B (Minnesota). In the Championship Game round, the NFC Rotation for 1970, 1971, and 1972 is Team C, Team A, Team B, meaning the West Champs (SF) should host the NFC Championship game if they won in the Divisional Round, which they did. If SF had lost, the 1970 NFC Championship would move to Team A (Dallas) if they won in the first round, and the last possibility would be Team B (Minnesota). 

This is how San Francisco was the road team for the Divisional Round but hosted Dallas in the 1970 NFC Championship Game where the Cowboys broke their hearts, as they always did back then.     

Real Life 1970 NFC, using TSN’s Alternate Rotation to keep Lions from playing Minnesota in first round

In the last post, I entertained the strong possibility the 1970 Giants should have won their last game and the Eastern Division. What would happen then?  Let’s also assume the Cowboys win the toss and the Wild Card and Detroit is eliminated. The primary rotation is Team C (SF) at Team A (NYG), and Team D (Dallas) at Team B (Minnesota).  This is a legal scenario, so this would have been chosen. Now C is the Home Team for the NFC Championship game so if SF wins they host the winner of Dallas/ Minnesota. If they lose, the next team in the rotation (Team C, Team A, Team B in 1970) or Team A would be chosen, and in this scenario it will be either SF or the Giants. 

Alternative 1970 NFC Scenario where Team A and WC are in same division with rotations A,B,C in the Divisional round and C,A,B in the Championship round.

What happened to the 1972 Dolphins?  The AFC uses the same rotations as the NFC but the Teams are different –Team A is the East Champion, Team B is the West Champion, and Team C is the Central Champion.  The Divisional rotations would be Oakland (B) at Pittsburgh (C) (to their historical regret) and Cleveland (D) at Miami (A).  The AFC Championship Rotation goes C, A, and B, so Team C, Pittsburgh, since they won, hosted Team A, Miami.    

1972 AFC Playoff Rotations 

Remember the goal was to bring playoff games to as many new venues as they could to drum up interest. 

The 1972 NFC had the Washington Redskins (Team A) and the Cowboys as the Wild Card Team (Team D).  Dallas could not play Washington, so Team D could not play Team A, so they went to the alternate rotations.  Washington in this setting hosted the Central Team, Team B (Green Bay) and Dallas (Team D) traveled to Team C, San Francisco.  This is an example of a situation where both the first (Team B, Green Bay) and second (Team C, San Francisco) seeds for the NFC Championship Game lost, so Washington hosted the NFC Championship Game:       

1972 NFC Alternate Rotations for both Divisional and NFC Championship

One thing bothers me…

There’s a note at the bottom of the second page that states if the Conference Championship game rotates because the first or second loses then the next Championship Game would be moved up to the next team in the cycle.  In other words the 1970 NFL Championship Cycle was Team C, Team A, and Team B, or the West, East and Central Champions, in order.  If San Francisco had lost, this would mean Dallas (Team A and next in line) would host Minnesota (Team B).  This would also mean the originally planned 1971 NFC Championship Game cycle of Team A, Team B, Team C would move up to Team B, Team C, Team A.

This never came up in the AFC, but in the 1972 NFC the double loss of both Teams B and C should mean that the 1973 NFC should have a Championship Rotation of B,C,A again.  It does not look like this actually happened:

1973 NFC Playoff Rotations, showing Championship Game adhered to Original (planned) sequence for Home Team.

If the order had been changed to “B First”, Minnesota would have hosted the 1973 NFC Championship Game. They didn’t; instead the Vikings managed to defeat Dallas in Dallas.  Dallas had beaten the 1973 Rams in the Divisional Game.  I’m not sure why the Championship Game did not rotate as TSN indicated it should have, but in all cases the Divisional Game winner hosted the Championship game in both Conferences from 1970-1974, so I’d go with that.   

How well did it work?

This Rotational Playoff Period gets a lot of stink for putting the Dolphins in Three Rivers Stadium for the AFC Championship, a place where the Steelers were already 8-0 in 1972.  But the Dolphins did win.  One way to judge this method is to see how many times the best team in the NFC or the AFC played the Conference Championship and then made it to the Super Bowl.

·        In the NFC, 1970 is the only year of the five where the best team, 12-2 Minnesota failed to even make the NFC Championship Game, but it could be argued that 1973 was actually worse in terms of counter-seeding. Both of the best teams in the 1973 NFC playoffs had to play key games on the road, with the Rams losing in Dallas and then Minnesota winning in Dallas – but Minnesota did make the Super Bowl.

·        In the AFC, the 1972 Dolphins obviously played on the road but still won, and 1974 Oakland at 12-2 lost to Pittsburgh in Oakland. But the rest of the time the system played out generally as one would have predicted. 

·        1975 was the first year for seeding 1-4 and then setting the second-round matchups after the first-round outcomes were completed, and the results were mixed (as they so often are).  In the 1975 NFC Dallas managed to beat the top seeds on their way to Super Bowl X, but the AFC’s top seed, Pittsburgh, held serve and made the Super Bowl.

 

Fred Bobberts

Initial Date of Publication 3/28/2024 

Revised Date of Publication 4/5/2024

 

    

 

“We Almost Lost Detroit” – NFL Playoff Tiebreakers and the 1970 NFC Postseason

 

New York Times, December 19, 1970

Tiebreakers, Part Two

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“We Almost Lost Detroit” – NFL Playoff Tiebreakers and the 1970 NFC Postseason

In spite of the Rotating Home Teams playoff feature (which occurred from 1970-1974 and I will publish on this, too), 1970 is a different season than any of those four seasons because it had only had four tie breakers:

1) Head to Head;

2) Division Record;

3) Intraconference Record;

4) Points +- Head to Head

5) And Coin Flip

Clearly the League hadn’t thought through the fact that in these new conferences with unbalanced schedules many teams would not play each other. This was corrected later, as they added a points per game step for both divisional and conference tie breakers for 1971 after the near debacle of the 1970 NFC Postseason.  But a potentially controversial coin-toss end to the 1970 Season in the NFC came down to one lucky upset.  Here is how:

 

This is the 1970 NFC after Week 13, with a week to go:

 

1970
NFC	After week 13
East:
Dallas	9-4	play Houston
NYG	9-4	play Rams wk 14
Central:
Minnesota	11-2	clinched division
Lions	9-4	play Green Bay
West:	Road
SF	9-3-1	play NO wk 14
Rams	8-4-1	play NYG wk 14

 

Now the way it turned out in real life, Dallas, SF and Detroit all won, and the Giants lost, which meant Detroit was all alone as a Wild Card at 10-4.  The NFC West was the designated road team so the 49ers would play the Division Champion from the same division as the wild card.  San Francisco played at the Central Division Champion Vikings in Minnesota, and Dallas hosted the Lions. Easy Peasy!

 

But there was a nightmare scenario if all three teams, the Giants, Dallas and Detroit had won and they were all favored, playing at home:

 

1970 NFC Doomsday Scenario
(Click to Expand)

If all three won between New York, Dallas and Detroit, the Giants, with the best division record in the East, would beat out the Cowboys and take the Division Championship.  The next tie breaker would be HTH – but the Lions and Cowboys did not play. They also have the same Conference record, so the next tie breaker was a coin flip.  It’s important in this time, before the days of sneaker deals and massive guaranteed contracts, most players still had off-season jobs and the player’s cut of $25,000 for a playoff game was in doubt based on a coin flip for one of these three teams.

 

The original plan was a Backroom coin flip at NFL headquarters but there were conspiracy theorists about possible league interference in Dallas’ favor, and one such individual threatened to sue the league.  The flip was rescheduled to be televised live on CBS.  Thank goodness it wasn’t needed, but the League had a very close call.