Monday, July 4, 2022

Bear Bryant and 'Bama Cast Their Ballot - (Cards from the 1977-78 Sugar Bowl for Strat-O-Matic College Football)

 




Cards from the 1977-78 Sugar Bowl (Alabama -OSU) for Strat-O-Matic College Football

Dropbox Link for the 1977 Alabama Crimson Tide

Dropbox Link for the 1977 Ohio State Buckeyes

Link to Other SOM CFB Content on this Blog

This is the first of a series of posts featuring teams from the Forum's BigStew11, Chris Stewart, a West Point grad who hails from the great State of Texas.  He is running an Eighties College Football Replay that caught my attention, as he made his own cards, enough for 26 teams from the 1977 season.  I contacted him and as one would well expect, he's a dedicated guy.  Collecting the data by box scores took him a total of ten years, and he wrote programs to call offensive and defensive plays so he could test the teams against the best representations of their schedules.  Looking at the teams I loved them, and so he gave me the okay to start posting them.  SOM CFB content is easily the most popular material I can post, so I am very much in his debt.     

New Year's Day was on Sunday in 1978, and so the major college bowl games were played the following day.  The 44th 1978 Sugar Bowl was thus played at the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, on Monday, January 2. It matched the third-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide of the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and the #9 Ohio State Buckeyes of the Big Ten Conference.  The teams were led by their respective hall of fame head coaches, Bear Bryant and Woody Hayes, who at the time were the winningest active coaches. 



Slightly favored, Alabama won in a rout 35–6, and finished second in the nation on a wild weekend where both teams that had been ahead of theme were bested, but the team behind them, Notre Dame, beat Texas who had been ranked #1.  Notre Dame took home the title in both polls. 


Bear Bryant entered his 20th year at Alabama in 1977 riding a streak of 18 consecutive winning seasons and bowl bids. In 1976, Alabama started 14 underclassmen and after a 2-2 opening, the Tide won seven of eight including the Liberty Bowl, where they destroyed favored UCLA 36-6. The momentum carried over as Alabama had finished the regular season as SEC champions with a record of 10–1; the only loss was at Nebraska (31–24) in week two.  Ohio State finished the regular season as co-champions of the Big Ten with a record of 9–2. Their only defeats were to Oklahoma by a point (29–28) on a disputed late field goal in week three and at rival Michigan Wolverines (14–6) to close the regular season. 

The Tide was led by a star-studded lineup - future NFLers Tony Nathan, Dwight Stephenson, Ozzie Newsome, E, J. Junior, Barry Krauss, Marty Lyons, Curtis McGriff, Don McNeal and Rich Wingo were all on this roster, and they were led by junior QB Jeff Rutledge, while Buddy Aydelette found stardom in the USFL.  After their loss to the Huskers, the Tide regained their footing three weeks later with a major upset of then #1 USC at the Coliseum (21-20) and later shut down #18 LSU 24-3 in Baton Rouge.    

The Buckeyes featured future NFLers (and Cowboys) Doug Donley and Ron Springs, Browns Tom DeLeone and Tom Cousineau, Ray Ellis, Mike Guess, and punter Tom Orosz. Woodie Hayes started his fastest backfield in memory; they were led by junior QB Rod Gerald, averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored 39 TDs.  After the shocker in week three at The Shoe they held six of their next eight opponents to less than 10 points (three by shutout), and powerful Michigan to only 14 points playing in Ann Arbor.  

After a scoreless first quarter, Alabama scored on a one-yard Tony Nathan touchdown run to cap a 10-play, 76-yard drive.  On their next offensive possession, 'Bama scored again on a 27-yard Jeff Rutledge touchdown pass to Bruce Bolton to take a 13–0 lead at the half.  In the third quarter, Rutledge had his second touchdown on a 3-yard pass to Rick Neal. Following a successful two-point conversion pass to Nathan, Alabama led 21–0, the score at the quarter's end. The Buckeyes scored their only points of the game early in the fourth when Rod Gerald threw a 38-yard touchdown pass to Jim Harrell, but failed on the two-point try and the score was 21–6.  The Tide closed the game with a pair of touchdown runs, the first from one yard by Major Ogilvie, and the second by Johnny Davis on a seven-yard run to make the final score 35–6.

Notes on The Cards:

1) Chris carded his teams based on total fumbles rather than fumbles lost or recovered. This method is recommended by no less than NFL Ed, so I can't argue with it. The cards I produced earlier were done on lost and recovered, so for those who prefer this method I would substitute the offensive and defensive splits below.  




2) He also has Penalties for these teams:



3) Lastly, he has a brilliant way to bring offensive blocking into the game - his teams have ratings for offensive lines.  You roll the Big Black Die already for penalties- if it come up with a D on a defensive split result, you roll the small white die again, and use the chart below. If, say a 2 -rated Center faces a 4 rated middle guard, on a D you roll a white die again, and on a 3-6 the offensive player would win the challenge and you would use the higher of the two results. If the BBD result was not a D you would resolve versus the defender's rating, i.e. a 4 would mean the lower of the two results, a 5 or 6 the higher of the two results. 




Enjoy the Cards - he has seven more complete '77-78 Bowl Games and I will get to them as soon as I can!

Fred Bobberts, Albuquerque, NM, 7/4/2022 (Used with Permission)


Sunday, June 19, 2022

"El Birdos" - Cards for the 1967 World Series (Normalized for Statis-Pro Baseball)

 


Normalized Cards for the American League Champion Red Sox and World Champion St. Louis Cardinals for Statis-Pro Baseball, done (as all of the other teams have been done) in the original c. 1987 format, i.e personalized clutch hitting and 1-4 clutch fielding. (Note that both Leagues are coming; this is a teaser for what is going to be two excellent sets). 

Dropbox zip file with Team PDFs

Other Links to Statis-Pro Baseball Content:

In researching this set, I found out something I wasn't aware of - these two teams really did not like each other, before the Series, and especially after it was over.  (One Boston paper wrote after the Series, "The Red Sox looked better in defeat than the Cardinals did in victory...take Gibson out of the lineup and you have a loser.")   I thought the general headhunting was just normal Sixties shenanigans, but the Red Sox did a lot of talking even before the Series began.  They seemed to hold the proud Cardinals in disdain.  The end of the regular season was not kind to the St. Louis, with MVP first baseman Orlando Cepeda slumping from a .349 high in late August; catcher Tim McCarver batting only .222 in the last three weeks, and right fielder Roger Maris batting only .229 in the last week after leading the team with 18 game winning RBI.  What was not widely reported was left fielder and lead-off man Lou Brock managed to get hot, hitting .370 in his final 23 games, with 20 runs scored and 15 batted in.  This was always an ominous omen for Cardinal opponents in the post season, as he swung the Series over to St. Louis, beating out a bunt, getting base hits to all fields, two doubles, a triple and huge home run.  Brock was on first base ten times, stole seven bases and came around to score on six of these occasions.  Bob Gibson gets deserved acclaim for three complete game wins, but he was matched by this period of productivity from the era's toughest World Series table-setter.   For his part, Maris hit .385 in the Series.   


The Sox had been led by two very talented ball players, American League MVP and Triple Crown Winner Carl Yastrzemski and Cy Young Award winner Jim Lonborg, who led the American League in wins, strikeouts, and hit batsmen, the latter of which had been given much credit for his development into a staff ace.   Yaz hit .400 with three homeruns in the Series, and it did not take long for St. Louis to try to shake him up, with both teams getting a warning after Nelson Briles threw successfully at his legs in Game 3.   Lonborg won Games 2 and 5 before facing Gibson in Game 7.  Characteristically, when asked what his Game 7 lineup would be Boston skipper Dick Williams replied, "Lonborg and Champagne," while first baseman George Scott had claimed that Bob Gibson would not last 5 innings.  This did not have the desired effect; Dal Maxvill, the normally pleasant St. Louis shortstop, indicated "...We never wanted to beat anybody all year as much as we wanted to beat them in the seventh game."



From a carding perspective, both teams benefit from the low run era in normalization, with the Red Sox in particular fielding a strong starting seven (other than the catcher).  Had they been able to play injured right fielder Tony Conigliaro they would have had a very strong edge in power in the outfield.  But the Cardinals were able to win 101 games with 2/3ds of a season of Bob Gibson precisely because they had strengths in all areas- a deep and talented batting lineup, both speed and power, and sneaky good pitching coming from Dick Hughes and Nelson Briles.  Starting Lonborg three times gives the Sox a chance, and I would expect this Series to be eminently replayable. 

A sampling of Boston hitters (Click and they should expand):

    

      And a sampling of Red Sox pitchers:



Enjoy the Series!

Fred Bobberts, Chandler, AZ

Date of Initial Publication: 6-19-2022

Sunday, April 24, 2022

"The Bronx is Burning" - Cards for the 1977 American League for Statis-Pro Baseball

 




"The Bronx is Burning" - The Complete 1977 American League Card Set for Statis-Pro Baseball

Note: if you are reading these posts on the Web, there are links to content in the right navigation pane, and a “previous posts” link way at the bottom of this page on the right. It may take time to find content you like, but there’s quite a bit in here.  I have nine posts for Statis-Pro Baseball alone.

Other Links to Statis-Pro Baseball Content:

1977AL_Comb_For_Print_02_27_2022

On October 18, 1977, 56,407 fans filled Yankee Stadium in hopes of seeing the Yankees close out the series.  The Dodgers didn't go down without a fight. Steve Garvey put the Dodgers on the board first with a two-out, two-run triple in the first off Mike Torrez. The Yankees came back and tied it in the second on a Chris Chambliss two-run homer after Reggie Jackson walked on four pitches. Reggie Smith put the Dodgers up 3–2 with his third homer of the Series, a solo shot in the third.

But Jackson hit a two-run homer in the fourth on the first pitch he saw from starter Burt Hooton to give the Yankees the lead. Lou Piniella made it 5–3 by adding a sacrifice fly.  Once again, in the fifth with a man on, Jackson connected on the first pitch off Elias Sosa to make the score 7–3. Jackson set an unequalled World Series and post-season records of home runs in 4 consecutive at-bats. The regular season record is 4 consecutive home runs by more than 25 players. (Nobody has ever hit 5 consecutive major league home runs). Jackson earned the nickname of "Mr. October." Reggie thus joined the handful of players to hit home runs while representing teams in both leagues.  Finally, in the eighth, Jackson strode to the plate, amid the chants of "REG-GIE, REG-GIE, REG-GIE!", and drove the first Charlie Hough knuckleball he saw 475 feet into the stands. The score was now 8–3.  With his Game 5 first-pitch homer and his four-pitch walk in the second inning of Game 6, Jackson would homer on his last four swings of the bat in the Series, each off a different Dodger pitcher.  The Yankees, for the first time since 1962, were World Champions.


Reggie's blows signaled the beginning of the end of small-market baseball, as he had been the 1976 off-season's biggest free agent acquisition, and he had joined the previous season's AL pennant winner. It would take a while for the realities of baseball roster budgeting to set in, but nowadays it is very rare for a team to contend if it is not placed in the top eight or ten salaried clubs. This means teams will tank to build a core, and then add the key players needed to push their teams over the top.  The Yankees had done exactly that, adding Reggie, Mike Torrez, Don Gullett, Bucky Dent, and Paul Blair in the 1977 offseason (or in Torrez's case, the first week of the season) to a strong core of holdovers from their 1976 AL Pennant winners, Thurman Munson, Graig Nettles, Catfish Hunter, Mickey Rivers, Chris Chambliss, Sparky Lyle, and Ed Figueroa.  The Yankees would win consecutive World Series in 1977 and 1978, added pennants in 1976 and 1981, and possessed the best record in baseball in 1980, a formidable six year run of accomplishment. Free Agency had arrived in a big way, and baseball would never be the same. 

Preseason predictions placed the Yankee's pitching hopes in the hands of Hunter, Figueroa, Torrez, Ken Holtzman, and Gullett, but when the dust cleared a young left-handed pitcher named Ron Guidry had stabilized the rotation.  Guidry came out of the bullpen and into the rotation to finish 16-7 with a nifty 2.82 ERA.  "Louisiana Lightning" would be even more impressive the next year, of course, but his first breakout year was something special, as he had up to that point only 31 innings in the majors and no wins prior to 1977.

Ron Guidry uncorks one. 

Guidry had spent a lot of time shuttling back and forth between West Haven, Syracuse, and the Yankees and was thinking of quitting.  He stayed, and once he was established, he turned into the best left-handed pitcher in the American League; between 1977 and 1985 he would win twenty games three times, win five Gold Gloves, win a Cy Young Award, and finish in the top seven of AL pitchers in that Award's voting six times, and finish 154-67 with a 3.15 ERA and 26 shutouts. He was also 5-2 in the post season, picking up a win in both the ALCS and WS in both 1977 and 1978.  The Yankees had a fiery Captain in Munson and a big bat in Jackson, smooth fielding bangers at the corners in Nettles and Chambliss, and the speedy Mickey Rivers in Centerfield, all plenty of proven talent but it was often guys like Guidry - Willie Randolph, the second baseman was another such competitor- who could cut opponent's hearts out in key situations. 

There were a lot of challengers, tough teams.  The National League has been covered before; but one should not overlook the Dodgers, Phillies, or Pirates as contenders. In the American League the Royals had what many of their fans consider to be their franchise's best season, winning 102 games behind the hitting of George Brett (.312,.373,.532, 22 HRs, 105 R, 88 RBI) Hal McRae (.298,.366,.515, 21 HRs, 104 R, 92 RBI) and Al Cowens, who added to a .312 BA and 112 RBI season with 14 assists, a Gold Glove in right field and a second place finish in the league's MVP race.  The pitching staff featured stoppers in 20 game winner Dennis Leonard, Jim Colburn, and Paul Splittorf, while the bull pen featured three men with at least ten saves in Larry Gura, Mark Littell, and Doug Bird.  The lack of a true closer would prove to be their undoing in the ALCS, as the Royals carried a 3-1 lead into the 8th inning of Game 5 only to see Reggie single in Wille Randolph in the 8th for one run, and the first three runners reach in the 9th with a clinching sacrifice fly against three different pitchers in the 9th.  It could be forgiven if Kansas City fans felt they deserved more from this era, and in particular this 1977 team.  They won three Division Titles in a row and lost to the Yankees each time; a perceptive Howard Cosell aptly noted at the conclusion of the ALCS, "The Yankees seem to just know how to win."

They had challengers in their division.  The ever-dangerous Red Sox rebounded from 83 wins in 1976 to win 97, and to take the New Yorkers to the last weekend.  The Sox batted .281 and hit 213 Homeruns, with Jim Rice (.320 39 HR 206 H, 104 R, 114 RBI), George Scott (33 HR 103 R, 95 RBI), Butch Hobson (30 HR, 112 RBI), Carl Yaztrzemski (28 HR 99 R 102 RBI), and Carlton Fisk (.315 26 HR, 106 R, 102 RBI) pounded lumps on enemy hurlers.  Dwight Evans and Bernie Carbo drove in 80 more runs in right field as a platoon; so effective was the lineup at turning over that Hobson actually drove in his 112 RBI while batting ninth.  The Sox got good work from long relievers Mike Paxton and Bob Stanley, who combined won 18 and lost only 12, and a great year from Bill Cambpell, who won 13 more games and saved 31 with a 2.96 ERA.  But the rotation, aside from Fergie Jenkins and part timer Don Aase all had ERAs of 4.26 or above.  This lack of depth prevented the Sox from stopping losing streaks; twice leading the Eastern Division they suffered long streaks, once in late June when they lost nine in a row to move from four games up to down by a game, and far more damaging streak in mid-August, losing seven in a row to move from 2 games up to trailing by two games - a deficit they never again were able to close, despite playing well in September (22-8).

Their competition on the last weekend, an ill-fated piece of chance that doomed both teams, was the Baltimore Orioles, who tied the Red Sox at 97-64 and 2.5 games back of the Yankees (100-62). The O's were led by their starting rotation - Jim Palmer who finished 20-11 with a 2.91 ERA, 18 wins from Rudy May, 15 wins from Mike Flanagan, 14 wins from Ross Grimsley, and another 14 wins from swingman Dennis Martinez.  On offense, newcomer Eddie Murray mostly played DH in his rookie year, and hit .283 with 27 HR and 88 RBI.  Right fielder Ken Singleton (.328, 107 BB, 90 R, 99 RBI, 24 HR) and first baseman Lee May (27 HR, 99 RBI) drove in runners while centerfielder Al Bumbry (.317, 19 SB) put pressure on the basepaths.  The O's were building the 1979 Pennant winners; while Grimsley and May would be banished to Montreal Scott Macgregor was lurking in the bullpen and Gary Roenicke and John Lowenstein were just a year away. 

Elsewhere in the East, a year made a big difference in the fortunes of the Tigers and Mark "the Bird" Fidrych.  Fidrych tore knee cartilage in the outfield in the Spring Training of 1977 fooling around in the outfield, and he missed the opener.  He came back to start the season 6-2 before his arm went dead.  Fidrych was never the same after that and finished up his career 29-19 after his brilliant 19-9 season in 1976.  Outfielder Mickey Stanley and reliever John Hiller were the last old hands left on the roster from the glory years, but 1B Jason Thompson (31 HR 105 RBI), Steve Kemp (18 HR 88 RBI), Ron Leflore (.325, 212 H, 100 R, 39 S) and Rusty Staub (22 HR, 101 RBI) were the bright spots, while Dave Rozema won 15 to lead AL rookie moundsmen.  

The Tribe managed only 100 HRs and 900k spectators in cavernous Cleveland Stadium, led by Andre Thornton's 28 HR and Rico Carty's 80 RBI.  Three pitchers at the top of the rotation were sound - Wayne Garland, in spite of his 13-19 record, Dennis Eckersley, and Jim Bibby, while fireballer Jim Kern and lefty Don Hood held down the fort in the bullpen.  Cleveland would lose Eckersley to Boston and Bibby to Pittsburgh in the 1977-78 offseason, where they would prove eminently helpful to their new teams. 

The Brewers finished 11th in the AL in both scoring runs and ERA, but the names in the lineup - Bando, Yount, Monty, Moore, Lezcano foretold better days.  Help, in the form of 1977 Twins All-Star Larry Hisle, Tigers cast-off Ben Oglivie, Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, and centerfielder Gorman Thomas would appear in 1978, turning this lineup into a feared group and an eventual pennant winner in 1982. On the mound, Jim Slaton pitched better than his 10-14 record would suggest, and he was traded to Detroit for Oglivie after the season - only to return in free agency a year later, a form of front office buffonery that Tigers fans remember to this day. 

Toronto lost 107 games in their inaugural campaign, with 38 year old DH Ron Fairly their lone representative in the All-Star Game.  Fairly batted .279 and hit 19 HR to lead the team in his 20th season, while youngsters Roy Howell (.316 BA) and Jim Clancy (4-9, 5.05 ERA) would eventually make decent careers.       

In the West, Kansas City had finished 8 games ahead of the 94-68 Texas Rangers.  The Rangers had five excellent pitchers who all won 10 or more games - starters Doyle Alexander (17-11), Gaylord Perry (15-12), Bert Blyleven (14-12, 2.72 ERA), and mid-season pickup Dock Ellis (10-6), with along with Swiss Army knife reliever Adrian Devine (11-6, 15 SV).  The Rangers tried Roger Moret and Paul Lindblad before settling on Darold Knowles as a lefty finisher, but their lack of depth in the bullpen in spite of a second-place team ERA finish would be a recurring problem in the next few years.  On offense the Rangers made up for middling batting and power by finishing fourth in the AL in base stealing, led by 2B Bump Wills (28 steals), 3B Toby Harrah (27 Steals, 109 BB 87 RBI and 27 HR), 35 year old SS Bert Campaneris (27 steals), CF Juan Beniquez (26 steals) and LF Claudell Washington (21 steals).  Campaneris experienced a career resurgence in 1977 and made his sixth and last All Star game, where he backed up Rick Burleson, drew a walk and scored a run.  IB Mike Hargrove hit .305, drew 103 BB, scored 98 R, and hit 18 HR, while a reasonably healthy Wille Horton batted .289, spanked 15 HR and drove in 75 R in limited duty at DH.

Finishing just behind the Rangers at 90-72 were the South Side Hitmen, the Chicago White Sox, and I'm not going to lie, they are my favorite team in the set. The White Sox scored 844 runs (3rd in the AL) on 192 HRs (2nd to Boston) and at their best they could pound lumps on the opposition. They were in first place in July and September until their weaker pitching started to take a toll.  Owner Bill Veeck and General Manager Roland Hemond wisely figured out that players in their last year of their contracts might be singularly motivated to perform well for one year as a form of rental - and they were right. They also scoured the waiver wire to build a formidable lineup - OFs Richie Zisk (.290, 30 HR, 101 RBI), and Oscar Gamble (.297, 31 HR, 83 RBI), 3B Eric Soderholm (.280, 25 HR 60 RBI) CF Chet Lemon (.273, 19 HR, 67 RBI), 1B Jim Spencer (18 HR, 69 RBI), OF Ralph Garr (.300) and DH Lamar Johnson (18 HR).  Manager Bob Lemon handed the ball to Francisco Barrios, Ken Kravec, Chris Knapp, and Steve Stone, even if as youngsters they had some growing pains; the one great pitching performance was from Lerrin LaGrow out of the bullpen (2.46 ERA, 25 saves).  The Sox looked set to make noise for quite some time - but Zisk had cost them Goose Gossage, and Gamble Bucky Dent, and in the long run these rentals proved costly. Still most White Sox fans rate this among the franchise's top teams; having tested them against the Red Sox I can say - they can hit.


                                           Oscar Gamble was deadly in 1977 (.297/.386/.588)

Leading the AL in runs scored while finishing only ahead of the expansion Blue Jays and Mariners in ERA, the Twins appropriately finished just over .500 at 84-78 in spite of having the league's leading hitter and MVP, Rod Carew (.388, 239 H, 38 2B, 16 3B, 14 HR, 128 R, 100 RBI, 23 Steals). Carew flirted with .400 for most of the year and finished with the highest BA in the American League since Ted Williams hit .388 in 1957.  Left fielder Larry Hisle (.302, 28 HR, 95R, 119 RBI, 21 Steals) and centerfielder Lyman Bostock (.339, 104 R) rounded out the Lumber Company, while Dave Goltz won 20 and Tom Johnson won 16 and saved 15 out of the bullpen, but SP Geoff Zahn and RP Tom Burgmeier suffered through off years.  

California had two of the league's best (and most feared) starters, the righty-lefty tandem of Nolan Ryan (19-16, 2.77 ERA, 341 K) and Frank Tanana (15-9, 254 ERA, 205 K).  Together they threw 29 WP and hit 21 batters, presumably not once with a changeup. A decent year out of swingman Paul Hartzell and some good work by the righty-lefty bullpen tandem of Dyar Miller and Dave Laroche allowed the Angels to finish fourth in American League ERA - but there were holes.  Ken Brett, Wayne Simpson and Gary Ross finished a combined 15-26 at the bottom end of the rotation, and Mike Barlow and Don Kirkwood had off years in the bullpen. 2B Jerry Remy stole 41 bases; CF Bobby Bonds hit 37 HR, drove in 117 R, and stole another 41 bases, and Don Baylor smacked 25 HR but Joe Rudi slumped to .264 and 13 HR while playing only 64 games.  

The Mariners finished out of the cellar in their first year, led by the trio of 1B Danny Meyer (.273, 22 HR, 90 RBI), RF Leroy Stanton (.275, 27 HR, 90 RBI) and the irrepressible Ruppert Jones (.263, 24 HR, 85 R, 76 RBI) who covered vast expanses of the Kingdome's artificial surface to hunt down flyball's to ecstatic cries of, "Roop! Roop!".  Jones was the first pick of the 1976 Expansion Draft and the first Mariner to make the All-Star team. The pitchers had no such representative, with only closer Enrique Romo (2.83 ERA, 16 SV) having a good year. 

The As finished in the cellar thanks to twin 19 game losing seasons by Rick Langford (8-19) and Vida Blue (14-19).  A good bullpen featuring Doug Bair, Pable Torrealba, Dave Giusti, Joe Coleman and Bob Lacey combined for 25 saves, but only 3B Wayne Gross (22 HR, 86 BB) and LF Mitchell Page (.307, 21 HR, 85 R, 75 RBI 42 ST) were bright spots at the plate.  For the future, though, SP Langford and Mike Norris saw steady action in 1977, and they would soon be joined full-time by Steve McCatty, Matt Keough - and Billy Martin, in better days ahead. 

The 1977 American League, like the 1977 NL before it, actually resides in the dead middle offensively of the seasons I am normalizing for, so like the 1977 NL, the standard cards are also the normalized cards. Enjoy the set!  My next set is likely to contain "A Fold For All Seasons."

Fred Bobberts 

Albuquerque, NM, Original Publication Date 2/27/2022           




Monday, January 10, 2022

Individual Pitchers Batting for the 1968 AL and NL and 1981 NL for Statis-Pro Baseball



Ken Brett:   Career batting stats: .262 avg., 10 HRs, 44 RBIs


Individual Pitchers Batting for the 1968 AL and NL and 1981 NL for Statis-Pro Baseball

1981_NL_Pitchers_Batting.pdf 

1981_NL_Pitchers_Batting_Norm.pdf

1968_NL_Pitchers_Batting.pdf

1968_NL_Pitchers_Batting_Norm.pdf

1968_AL_Pitchers_Batting.pdf

1968_AL_Pitchers_Batting_Norm.pdf


Other Links to Statis-Pro Baseball Content:

Sharp eyed gamers will have noticed that the 1972 American and National League teams and the 1977 National League teams each had both team-summarized pitcher's batting cards as well as individually carded pitcher's batting cards on excel-type sheets.  I did not put those pitcher's batting cards onto regular cards because it would take a lot more sheets to print a full season, and it is a lot of extra work to get each detail right on those player card variants. Personally, I prefer the team approach to having peripheral relievers with 30 percent of their hit results as triples or home runs, which you will see occasionally in a big season. But I can see why some gamers might want to have a good hitting pitcher individually carded as a good hitter, especially for starters; it does impact how long they might stay in a game.  Part of me thinks the ideal carding strategy would be to bucket the pitchers into low average, medium average and high average hitters that are carded with and without power, and to create six or eight cards that would apply to a season.  I've been thinking about this strategy, and I might just try it later as a compromise.

If I do create these cards, I will also have to do what I have done here, which is play catch up with past seasons.  Above are the links for the 1968 American League and National League, and the 1981 National League.  Teams from the 1981 American League will have to be played using the single 1981 AL pitcher's batting card, since these pitchers did not bat except in the post season. 

Note also regular unadjusted versions, and normalized versions.  These should open as pdf, where you can save and print them.


Enjoy!

Fred Bobberts

Chandler, AZ

Original Publication Date: 1/9/2021


Sunday, December 26, 2021

“The Future Is Now” Design Notes for the 1971 NFL (SOM FB V13)



“The Future Is Now” 

1971 Season for SOM FB (V13)

Original Publication Date – 6/10/2012 et. seq. 

For Dan Patterson, Byron Henderson, and Robert Henderson (en memento)


OTHER SOM PRO FOOTBALL POSTS:

SOM PRO FOOTBALL LINKS


Design Notes for the 1971 NFL for SOM FB


1971 is a defensive season and a running season. The runners are at least at the level of 1980, a big step up from 1970. But the passers completed fewer passes for fewer yards and threw more interceptions than in 1970. The season is a new type of quantitation, but one we are likely to revisit again in the next few years. Okay, so on the surface it’s a boring season, think 1992-ish. This is the face of Seventies football.


It’s a boring season, yes, but not a set of boring cards. The reason is the model. You’d think because the Super Bowl teams could run (Miami was #1 and Dallas #3 in the NFL in rushing yards) that all winning teams would be running teams. They aren’t. Baltimore is, LA is- but San Francisco, Washington, Kansas City, and Minnesota are really passing teams. The set has a lot of losing but solid running teams (Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, and the Jets) mated to poor passing teams, and a few losing but decent passing teams matched with bad runners (Houston, San Diego, St Louis). There are ten or so very good running teams and then a bunch of weaker running teams, worse than average even on some teams that are winners. Because of this, many teams had to be crafted carefully to account for these imbalances. In SOM speak, ‘we have some extreme cards in this set.’ 


It is a mid-size season, comparatively speaking, at 788 sides, just under 7 months, and 700 hours. 26 team seasons are just not bad to work on compared to 1980 or 1976, the 28 team seasons. The teams took a little individual attention to get right, but really, this one went smoothly. This was my seventh such effort, and probably the easiest to work on.


A big help there was Tommy Nobis owning the roster planning. I finally figured out that blindly applying the “last team” guideline to every roster was not going to work in every case. He’s a stock league commissioner, and he understands roster limits and the rules that depend on them for game flow a lot better than I do. He really put me on the right path early. 


Our annual interactions would normally be limited to his pointing out where I had failed in a season’s personnel design during its final testing, which is the worst time for me to look at these issues. At that point in the process I’m trying to punch the potato through the pipe. I get, well, difficult. I admit I had frustrated Nobis a few times over the years. I’d learned from 1970 that leagues work very well statistically when the rosters are planned in advance - the fix was to engage him early, and so we (well, he) made a few changes:


-Eric Crabtree was originally carded as a New England WR because he did finish his season there, but Cincinnati was shorted a WR in the original set and the Patriots were not. Tom used Alfred Sykes to cover for Crabtree in New England and “un-traded” him back to the Bengals for his final NFL season.


-Tom put Dickie Post with Denver, where he ended up, placed Tony Baker back with New Orleans, changes that mended both rosters. But beyond that it was the little things he remembered- Ray Poage was actually a TE/WR for Atlanta, John Isenbarger’s contribution with the 49ers, Mike Carter as a late addition from the taxi squad with the Packers. 


-Tom redid a lot of runner positions and squared a way a lot of inconsistencies, little details to be sure, but the kind of items that really give a season its color around the edges. I owe him a deep debt of thanks. 


Once again, as in 1970, the final roster limits on the original cards also affected the ratings cards, and in nearly every case a team needed an extra lineman and an extra defensive back. For instance St Louis had (on the field) both Ron Yankowski and Krueger starting at left end, and (in SOM) both are zeros. While Yankowski probably played the most at LE, I put Krueger in as the nominal starter because he did have the most sacks. In reality Krueger played the most time, but he subbed in at both tackle and end in a defensive line that moved guys around a bit. This is normal.


Sometimes I think the only real research value I create in modern seasons is with the new kicking cards, where I have the knack for finding mistakes even in the official data every year. I redo every Special Teams card because I trust nothing I see from prior data. Green Bay’s 1971 online (and original card) kicking data for some reason excludes Lou Michaels, but he was 8 for 14 and actually made several long kicks before being sidelined. Their new kicking card is thus much better than the old white card version. The Eagles, however do not appreciate the addition of Happy Feller’s six-for-twenty season to what would have been a great individual card for Tom Dempsey, the only man to make three fifty yard kicks in 1971. Feller did add a fourth long boot. 


The original Cowboys did not have a TD on their kickoff return card because under the carding rules of the time Ike Thomas (and his 7 returns, 2 for TDs) didn’t have enough attempts to qualify as the #2 back. But I group all of the tertiary return men, so Thomas is in there and so are the TDs. He brightens their kickoff return card with touchdowns in the 2 and 4 spots.


The Vikings, courtesy of their freaky pass defense yardages and so-so defensive points, get their 'Defender x or +15' results moved to the five spots instead of the seven spots. This is by design, and before anybody gets up in arms about it, this feature was on the original white cards, too. This was the only team ever done this way by SOM in the 'White Card' era. 


The 2,3,6 kickoff coverage for the Redskins looks like it should be a punt return defense. But this is not a mistake – they posted 1971’s best numbers by far against the season’s toughest return slate. (I do love it when this happens, good for a fight, too, every year). In a season of good kick returning Washington led the next best team, Miami, by two and a half yards in spite of facing Dallas (27.5), Philadelphia (25.6) and St Louis (24.7) twice each. People forget that George Allen was not just a coach, he was a heckuva manager, too, and that he invented the NFL special teams coach position while with the Rams in 1969. The man holding the stopwatch ? - Dick Vermeil. I’ll have more on Allen later.


The Dolphins have the league’s best runners, with Csonka impossible to stop without keying and Mercury Morris explosive around end. The real key is Kiick, who has a card that can do it all. This is probably his best season. Kiick can play both running positions, and he is the man on the spot for dump passes. The real question will always be, just as it was for Shula, “who should be playing when?”


Dallas is loaded with All Pros or former All Pros, I’m not sure an NFL roster has ever had more proven talent than the 1971 Cowboys. They have stars everywhere – Staubach, Niland, Wright, Manders, Neely, Hayes, Alworth, Thomas, Hill and Ditka on offense; Lilly, Pugh, Andrie, Howley, Jordan, Adderly, Renfro and Green on defense. They led the league in offense and passing yards with Staubach only playing 10 games. They force tremendous turnovers both versus the pass and the run. It’s a loaded team, a Brammer team. Reserve QB Morton is still solid, but he’s not Staubach, and the team has a poor kicker and middling pass protection, so they should drop a couple of games over a full season. Put Staubach and his running and arm in there, and the team immediately brightens, as it should. Roger the Dodger did not lose a start in 1971.


The Lions have half of what it takes to be a great team – the offense. Greg Landry made the Pro Bowl with his passing and running, the last Lion QB to do so. He had help from TE Charlie Sanders and RB Altie Taylor. Missing Alex Karras up front, the team did not do as well on defense. The secret here is to work Landry’s running in as much as you can. 


Buffalo – well, unfortunately still no great O.J. card coming from me, not yet. I wonder what good things might have happened for Dennis Shaw, the 1970 AFC Rookie of the Year had coach John Rauch not used The Juice as a decoy and special teams player; Simpson got ‘Reggie Bush-ed’. Without a consistent running threat Shaw was sacked 112 times in 3 years. At 6’3” and 215 he was the size NFL teams coveted and he could throw at the NFL level. He clipped Dallas for 4 passing TDs in the first game of the 1971 season. Scouts of the time counted him as the equal to Terry Bradshaw: 


http://www.mmbolding.com/BSR/pq72Shaw.htm


He had the same problem as Bradshaw at the time and Tebow of our time, an inability to read defenses or anticipate receivers, not good traits when you are also running for your life. His 1971 line was hideous; he threw 26 interceptions. He lost a big target once the Bills traded Marlin Briscoe in 1972, and the weight of all the losing (he was 8-27-2 as a starter) caught up to him once the Bills drafted Joe Ferguson in 1973. But I wonder if he might have done better under a better system.


Fran Tarkenton threw for nearly 2600 yards for a losing New York Giants team, the only team I have ever carded with seven runners. Tarkenton and backfield mate Randy Johnson actually topped 3,000 yards passing, but the runners were ineffective. Ron Johnson, the Giant’s horse from 1970, has a good side but in this season he only had 32 carries. None of the other backfield candidates could match Johnson, and without his punishing ball control the team collapsed. The defense was terrible. 1971 was the end of Tarkenton’s stay in New York; after fighting during the season with Giant coach Alex Webster, he went back to Minnesota to try for a Super Bowl title there in 1972. 


Another great thrower who carries his 1971 team (and has better future luck) was Dan Pastorini. Pastorini started 5-25 with the Oilers, but by the mid Seventies he had some runners to help him. The 1971 Oilers are flat out the weakest running team I have ever carded – 1,106 yards and 3.1 per carry in a season where a typical team would get over 1,800 yards. The team gets about 150 ineffective throws from rookie Lynn Dickey and the aging Charley Johnson. Because of this, Pastorini, who has to be nearly personally responsible for the team’s four wins and 251 points, gets a pretty nice card for his stats.


Kansas City faced the worst running defenses in the AFC in 1971, and this affects their running game quite a bit. However, Len Dawson does get a great card and the defense is stellar, other than forcing next to no fumbles. This team is famous for opposing the Dolphins in a match of competing dynasties in the longest NFL game of all time. Unfortunately Kansas City’s star was burning less brightly, just as the Dolphins were rising. The last game played at Municipal Stadium, this was also the last hurrah for players like Dawson, Bobby Bell, Emmitt Thomas, Willie Lanier, Jim Marsalis, and Jim Tyrer as well as coach Hank Stram. 


While Stram would hang on for three more years, the team was declining into an era where they would become irrelevant; the Chiefs made the playoffs only once in the next eighteen years and did not win the West again for twenty two. Jan Stenerud’s miss from 31 yards at the end of regulation (and the later block in the first OT period) stand out in bas-relief from the rest of his Hall of Fame career, while we would see more from the winning Dolphins in the next few years. The Chiefs would wait until the Marty Schottenheimer era to prove a consistent winner.


Speaking of Martyball - who is the best coach not to win a Super Bowl? Well, we have to exclude men like George Halas or Paul Brown, because they won championships in the pre-Bowl era. Brown won six championships, so he cannot really be in the discussion. The logical modern era coach – over Jeff Fisher (147-126), or Andy Reid (126-81), or Marv Levy (143-112), or Bud Grant (168-108-5) – would be Schottenheimer (200-126-1), the only man from the post 1966 era to have 200 wins but no Super Bowls. 


Schottenheimer’s specialty was taking talented teams and molding them into winners, but my choice would be more of a turnaround specialist – George Allen. Allen never had a losing season and was 116-47-5, third best of all time. He did this while taking over teams that were perennial losers. The Rams had not been winners in the seven years before he took them over; the Redskins troubles went all the way back to 1946; from 1955 to1968 the team did not even have a winning season. 


Professional football teams are usually not much different from each other physically. The difference between winning and losing is attitude. Football coaches are enshrined in American popular culture because they redefine this approach every day. Fans laugh about Coach Speak, particularly in interviews, but we also quote it. Football coaches are the true philosophers of America, and George Allen was a man of his time. His motto was ‘The Future is Now’, and he worked very hard to make this happen. 


Tactically, Allen belongs in both the Sid Gillman and George Halas coaching trees, having been an assistant with Gillman in LA and with Halas in Chicago. His main duty in Chicago was to devise a defense that could stop Gillman’s offensive system, and he became their defensive specialist, winning a championship in 1963. Allen did not invent the zone defense or the nickel, but he did perfect these defensive schemes, and they became the staples of Seventies pro football. 


Allen’s success was driven by three things. He was a master motivator. He spent sixteen hour days watching over his guys and never took time off. His players loved him even though he was very hard on them. When the Rams fired him the first time in 1968 (‘Allen was given unlimited authority and he exceeded it”, quipped Rams owner Dan Reeves) his team rebelled and walked out, and forced management to give him a new 2 year deal. Allen was also paranoid, often charging that people were spying on his practices or watching the team. But his paranoia also drove the kind of detail oriented game planning that his players appreciated. He put them in positions where they could compete. If he did not have someone for a spot he would spend or trade to get someone experienced who could compete immediately. 


Drafting for the future is at best an illusory concept to players hoping to hold a job in the present. They would rather offer their best efforts to someone committed, as they had to be, to success right away, and Allen could do that. He was a great judge of football talent. In Allen’s view, ‘Every man was born with the ability to do something well’, and he sought those men to fill these roles. Allen pulled off no less than 19 trades before the 1971 opener, getting players like Billy Kilmer, Roy Jefferson, Ron McDole, Richie Petitbon, and--from his Rams--veterans Jack Pardee, Myron Pottios, and Diron Talbert. His favorite trade was made in 1973, when he sent five players to the Oilers for safety Ken Houston, who would make seven more Pro Bowls with the Redskins. 


To his detractors sending draft choices out to field an older but experienced team was mortgaging the franchise, but to Allen, winning now was the measure of any good coach. Allen’s 1971 team – his favorite by most accounts – responded with a 9-4-1 record and a Wild Card berth in the playoffs. Their finest hour in his mind was their victory over the Rams on December 13th that ended LA’s chances for the post season. If he coached now, George Allen would not be allowed the latitude to do what he did in 1971. But that season, and the season that came after it in Washington, showed his true talents as a coach and motivator. Allen made men feel that what they really wanted was right in front of them for the taking, and they took it. 


Enjoy the Season.


Fred Bobberts

Clearwater, Florida

6/10/2012


(I just found this and I am looking for others - Fred B, December 2021)

Sunday, December 12, 2021

"Dodger Blue Wrecking Crew" - Cards for the 1977 National League for Statis-Pro Baseball

 



"Dodger Blue Wrecking Crew" - Cards for the 1977 National League for Statis-Pro Baseball



(The 1977 National League is very close to the baseline for NL teams over the last 60 years.  It does not require Normalization.)


On October 2nd, 1977, the last day of the season, Los Angeles Dodger left fielder Dusty Baker stepped in against Houston Astro righthander J.R. Richard in the sixth inning of a game that meant nothing in the standings, but quite a bit in terms of possible history.  To that point in baseball history, no team had ever had four thirty home run hitters within the same season.  While teammates Steve Garvey, Reggie Smith and Ron Cey had cleared the bar, Baker was stuck on 29 homers.   He had entered September with 20 homers but he had uncorked a big month, clipping number 28 on September 18th with 12 games to go. Then he went cold, needing a week to hit his penultimate 29th homer on September 25th.  Now he was down to his last few chances, hitting against the fearsome Richard, who was having an excellent season and by then had a reputation as a bit of a Dodger-killer.  When he had his command Richard was terribly difficult for right-handed batters to stand in against, and up to this point in his career Baker was 7-42 against the Astro's ace, all singles.  

(J.R. Richard could throw 100 mph and his pitching style was referred to back then as "wild-effective".  His slider was not completely controllable, but it was also unhittable; he walked as many as 154 men in a season but allowed microscopic batting averages.  Baker has told funny stories about "J.R.-itis", where some of his contemporary Dodger teammates would fake the flu and beg off being in the lineup in order to miss Richard's turn in the rotation.  I remember him as being the most intimidating righthander I had ever seen until Clemens came along; I'm too young to have seen a lot of Bob Gibson.)  

Baker ripped his 30th deep into the night, and after he circled the bases, rookie outfielder Glenn Burke lifted his hand above his head.  Unsure of how to respond, Baker raised his hand up, overhead, and slapped Burke's - the first recorded "high-five".  It was an imaginative moment to mark what is in retrospect a quaint achievement.  Thanks to the steroid era eleven more teams have now had four thirty home run hitters, and one team, the 2019 Minnesota Twins, had five such players.  Baseball in the Seventies was a simpler game in a simpler time, but because different teams had very different styles of play, it was also immensely entertaining. 



Led by 20 game winner Tommy John, all five LA starters won in double figures and the Dodgers had far and away the National League's best pitching.  LA finished second in complete games and shutouts while relievers Charlie Hough (22) and Mike Garman (12) paced them to fourth in saves.  The combination of timely power and solid pitching allowed the Dodgers to finally surpass the Cincinnati Reds for the first time since 1974.  Relegated to second place, the Reds nonetheless successfully promoted Dan Driessen to take Tony Perez's place; he batted .300 to join three teammates, George Foster (.320), Ken Griffey (.318), and Pete Rose (.311), while Foster also blasted 52 homers and drove in 149 runs to win the MVP.  Cincinnati was one of two teams to score more than 800 runs without the DH in 1977, but fell to 88-74 due to inconsistent starting pitching.  Facing a losing record at the end of May, Cincinnati traded Steve Henderson; a minor league outfielder, Doug Flynn, a utility infielder; Pat Zachry, a pitcher now in his second season in the major leagues, and Dan Norman, an outfielder on June 15th, 1977 for New York Mets ace Tom Seaver.  Seaver finished 14-3 for the Reds to complete his last twenty-game winning season, finishing at 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 7 shutouts.  But it would take two years for this trade to truly bear fruit for the Reds.

The other team to score more than 800 runs was the Philadelphia Phillies, with 847 tallies.  Philly fans could be forgiven for believing that 1977 should have been their year.  Philadelphia had a deep and talented lineup featuring four top level fielders in C Bob Boone, SS Larry Bowa, 3B Mike Schmidt, and CF Gary Maddox, and seven hitters who smacked in double figures in homeruns, with Schmidt and OF Greg Luzinski combining for 77 homeruns and 231 RBIs.  The Phillies could also count on Cy Young Award winner Steve Carlton who finished 23-10 with a 2.64 ERA, and a four headed bullpen of Ron Reed, Warren Brusstar, Tug McGraw, and Gene Garber, who posted a league-leading 47 saves.  The Philles led the National League with 101 wins, and looked like they might be World Series bound after taking a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the 8th inning of Game 3 of the NLCS.  (Back then, the NLCS was only 5 games and the Series was tied at 1-1 with Carlton due to pitch in Game 4.)  With two out in the ninth, the Dodgers parlayed a drag bunt, and a double and an error, a single, a failed pickoff and another single into an eventual 6-5 win.  The next day the Dodgers struck first with two quick runs against Lefty, and John outdueled him for a 4-1 win, the National League pennant, and a date with the AL Champion New York Yankees - and Reggie Jackson.

The Pirates won 96 games, and under normal circumstances this would indicate a reasonably close race.  In reality, Pittsburgh was the champions of May, and while they trailed Philadelphia by a mere half game on June 3rd they would never again get that close to first place.  They were done in by an elbow injury to team leader Willie Stargell, and a poor month of June.  After June 3rd they lost five of their next seven, swept the Padres in a double header on the 12th, then lost their next seven in a row, including three walk-offs, to drop 7 games back.  This can happen to a good team - but what happened next was far more damaging to their chances, as they then won six in a row but still lost another half game to the onrushing Phillies.  The Pirates then lost four in a row to the Cardinals and Mets, and went to bed on Jun 28th after at St Louis sweep a full ten games back.  A good July closed this gap to a game and a half by July 30th, but the Phillies were able to put together excellent August and September campaigns to build the lead back.  In Stargell's absence, the Pirates were led on offense by Dave Parker, who led the NL in batting average (.338), hits and doubles and won the Gold Glove in rightfield; Bill Robinson filled in nicely for the missing Pops with a .300 batting average, 26 HRs, and 104 R BI; John Candelaria led the NL in ERA at 2.34 and finished 20-5; and Goose Gossage saved 26 games with a 1.62 ERA.  They were a very good team, but not quite deep enough in the lineup or off the bench to challenge the Phillies.

If the Pirates threatened in the East early, the Cubs led all the way through July.  Chicago forged their way to a 47-24 record on June 30th and a 7 1/2 game lead; with the White Sox also playing well there was talk of a Windy City Series.  The Cubs were led by new outfielder Bobby Murcer, who had 27 homeruns and 89 RBI overall during the season, and righthander Rick Reuschel, who finished with a record of 20-10,  At the end of the bullpen was Bruce Sutter, a second-year pitcher who finished with 31 saves and a 1.34 ERA, but the rest of the rotation as spotty, with Ray Burris, Bill Bonham, and Mike Krukow all finishing with ERAs over 4.00.  To make matters worse, Sutter would hit the disabled list on August 3rd with arm troubles.  He would return three weeks later, by the time the closer returned, the damage was done and the Phillies were in the driver’s seat.

The Cubs would be passed in the end by the Cardinals, who were transitioning from the Bob Gibson era to a new young squad who would later win it all in 1982.  Bob Forsch won 20 games, while first baseman Keith Hernandez scored 90 runs and drove in 91, but the best young talents on the team were slugging catcher Ted Simmons, who batted .318 and swatted 21 HR, and shortstop Gary Templeton, who hit .322.  The Cardinals actually finished 4th in the league in runs scored thanks to speedsters like outfielders Tony Scott and Jerry Mumphrey, Templeton, and the ageless Lou Brock, who still led the team with 35 steals.

They were building the core of the Expo teams that would be contenders later in the decade in Montreal in 1977.  Gary Carter, Larry Parrish, Andre Dawson, Warren Cromartie and Ellis Valentine all played together as starters for the first time, while ace Steve Rogers topped 300 IP for the first time.  Finally exiting the cellar, they were all building the consistency Montreal would lean on in the years from 1979-1983.  The Mets lost Tom Seaver, Jerry Grote, and Dave Kingman to trades, and '73 stalwarts like Bud Harrelson, Felix Millan, and Ed Kranepool were getting older and starting to give way to younger players, like Lee Mazzilli, Steve Henderson and John Stearns.  Falling to last in the NL East, it would be a while before the Mets would rise again.    

The Astros were also establishing a new identity, as they were second in the National League in steals and ERA.  Once a team of big boppers, speed and pitching would become the Houston imprimatur, and in this they were led by the aforementioned flamethrowing J.R. Richard and knuckleballing journeyman Joe Niekro, while left-handed reliever Joe Sambito held down the bullpen nicely.  Bob Watson (22 HR, 110 RBI) and Jose Cruz (17 HR, 87 RBI) provided the pop, while Cesar Cedeno stole 61 SB and won a Gold Glove in the outfield to add the sizzle.  In SF, the Grand Old Man of Candlestick Park, Willie McCovey, banged 28 HR and drove in 86 RBI at the ripe old age of 39 to continue his march to 500 HR and Bill Madlock hit .302, supporting pitchers Ed Halicki (16 wins), Bob Knepper, and John Montefusco, a trio of starters who (along with Vida Blue a year later) would spend a few seasons together.  

The Padres had a great outfield of Gene Richards (.290, 56 SB), George Hendrick (.311, 22 HR, 81 RBI) and Dave Winfield (25 HR, 92 RBI) but catcher Gene Tenace fell to .233 (albeit with 125 walks) and the rest of the lineup was disappointing at the dish.  This doomed team ace Bob Shirley to 18 losses in spite of a reasonable 3.70 ERA.  Gary Matthews (.283, 17 HR, 22 SB) and Jeff Burroughs (41 HR, 114 RBI) provided a little speed and sock, but the Braves fell to 9th in the NL in runs scored, a killing balance with half their games at the Launch Pad, and they weren't brilliant in the field, either, making 175 errors and turning the league’s fewest double plays (127).  Phil Niekro, Atlanta's brilliant half of the Niekro Brothers, could manage only 16 wins while losing 20 with a 4.03 ERA.  

Merry Christmas!  Enjoy these 1977 National League Statis-Pro Cards.  The 1977 American League is coming next, and along with it, a visit to the Bronx Zoo.

-Initial Publication Date 12/12/2021

Saturday, October 30, 2021

Normalized Statis-Pro Baseball Cards for 1968 and 1981

Normalized Statis-Pro Baseball Cards for 1968 and 1981 





 During the last two-plus years I didn’t just normalize the 1972 season, I also created normalized cards for 1968 and 1981, seasons I had posted earlier. The seasons are instructive as to the model and how it changes teams from different offensive contexts. 


 Below I’ve crafted a few charts that show how different seasons are modeled. The very strong pitching seasons of 1968 and the 1972AL land more results on pitchers cards, and this change from 50/50 results in a higher offensive multiplier for offensive cards. In contrast 1981 has less of this effect, and a modern season, with its “three outcomes” creates a higher offensive context with its emphasis on power and walks. The multiplier adds batting average, on base percentage, and slugging to batters cards in pitching rich seasons. 

 Figure 1: Summary Charts
 The higher offensive context of 2021 will result in fewer hits and homeruns on batters cards, since pitchers now control extra base hits comparatively worse. A typical 1981 AL Batter will now have 19.88 hits, up from 19.04 and 2.9 BB, down from 3.1. While the starting point for 1981 AL batters and 1968 AL batters for homeruns is very similar, after adjustment the 1968 AL will have more power. The 2021 AL, with its emphasis on power throughout the lineup and walks, will wind up with fewer hits on batters cards but more of them will be doubles and homeruns. 2021 AL batters will also walk more and get hit by pitched ball more. This is how you have a five home run games with an ending score of 6-2. The important point is 1968 teams will still not hit better than those from 1972, 1981, or 2021. But the difference will now be less facing those lineups, and also partly made up by their pitchers. 

Figure 2: Offense Comparisons
 If a standard carding pitcher retains control 2-6,11,12, a 1968 pitcher retains control 2-6,10,12 and a 2021 pitcher retains control 2-6,11 (More or less). The differences are subtle but over a season having your pitchers consistently prevent extra base hits adds up. Figure 3 below shows how pitchers are affected by their context. In general some 2-5 pitchers will move up to 2-6, some pitchers will move up to 2-7, and there will be more 2-8 and 2-9 pitchers. 

 Figure 3: Pitching Comparison

The addition of more hits to 1968 and 1972 batters cards mean these hits also come off of the pitchers cards. A typical 1968 pitcher will have around a hit to a hit and a half taken off of their card, while teams from high run contexts would see a similar number of hits added.  The net effect, again, is to bring these teams closer together when they play each other.